Programme Monday September 5th Morning 08h30 - 09h15 registration 09h15 - 09h30 Opening ceremony Session 1.a : Dynamics chair : Andrew Crook 09h30 - 10h00 keynote : Keith Browning (Univ. of Reading - United Kingdom) Nowcasting : a bit of history and some thoughts on the importance of basic understanding   10h00 - 10h12 Christopher Davis (NCAR - United States of America) Convection Initiation Near Mesoscale Vortices 10h12 - 10h24 Peter Lean (Univ. of Reading - United Kingdom) Quantifying error growth during convective initiation in a mesoscale model 10h24 - 10h36 Tammy Weckwerth (NCAR - United States of America) Scales of features influencing convection initiation on 12 June 2002 during IHOP_2002 10h36 - 10h48 Sophie Bastin (Météo-France - France) Numerical investigation of the multi-scale processes inducing convection initiation for the IHOP_2002 case study 12 June 2002 10h48 - 11h00 Marek Kašpar (IAP - Czech Republic) Numerical simulations of convective events - The effect of propagating gust fronts 11h00 - 11h30 coffee break and Posters sessions 1-2-3-4 viewing Session 1.b : Societal Impacts chair : Jeff Lazo 11h30 - 12h00 keynote : Jeff Lazo (NCAR - United States of America) Societal impacts and economic benefits of improving short-range weather forecasts   12h00 - 12h12 Jim Evans (United States of America) Assessment of aviation delay benefits for nowcasts and short term forecasts 12h12 - 12h24 C. U. Okoloye (NIMET - Nigeria) A case study of thunderstorm forecasting in West Africa 12h24 - 12h36 Ben Jong-Dao Jou (NTU - Taiwan) Nowcasting problem in a subtropical area with complex terrain : lesson learned from a flash flood case 12h36 - 12h48 Lucy Mtilatila (Met. Serv. - Malawi) Multidimensional applications of Nowcasting   13h00 - 14h30 lunch and continuation of Posters sessions 1-2-3-4 viewing Afternoon Session 2 : Techniques chairs : Geoff Austen and Rita Roberts 14h30 - 15h00 keynote : Isztar Zawadzki (Mc Gill Univ. - Canada) Nowcasting of precipitation   15h00 - 15h12 Gang Xu (Colorado State - United States of America) Radar storm motion estimation and beyond: a spectral algorithm and radar observation based dynamic model 15h12 - 15h24 Alessandro Hering (MeteoSwiss - Switzerland) Nowcasting thunderstorms in complex cases using radar data 15h24 - 15h36 Harri Hohti (FMI - Finland) Radar based ensemble nowcasting of precipitation 15h36 - 15h48 Luiz Machado (CPTEC/INPE - Brazil) Convective system area expansion - High-level wind divergence and vertical velocity : a tool for nowcasting 15h48 - 16h00 Zbynek Sokol (IAP - Czech Republic) Comparison of several methods for probabilistic forecasting of locally-heavy rainfall in the 0-3 hour timeframe   16h00 - 16h30 coffee break and Posters sessions 1-2-3-4 viewing   16h30 - 17h00 keynote : Alan Seed (BMRC - Australia) Short Term Ensemble Prediction System (STEPS): an empirical treatment of forecast uncertainty   17h00 - 17h12 Clive Pierce (The Met. Office - United Kingdom) Development of a stochastic precipitation nowcast scheme for flood forecasting and warning 17h12 - 17h24 Thomas Haiden (CIMG - Austria) Prediction of convective cell initiation in mountainous terrain using a high-resolution analysis system 17h24 - 17h36 David Ahijevych (NCAR - United States of America) Tracking and forecasting precipitation episodes in the NCWF-2 autonowcaster 17h36 - 17h48 John Cook (NRL - United States of America) The naval research laboratory nowcast system 17h48 - 18h00 John Mecikalski (Univ. of Alabama - United States of America) Geostationary satellite-based methods for nowcasting total lightning flash rates, convective initiation and convective cloud properties 18h15 Ice breaker cocktail Tuesday September 6th Morning Session 2 : Techniques (continuation) chairs : Geoff Austen and Rita Roberts 09h00 - 09h12 James Wilson (NCAR - United States of America) Combining radar echo extrapolation and NWP techniques for 1-6 H convective storm forecasts 09h12 - 09h24 Ralph Petersen (CIMSS - United States of America) An objective nowcasting tool that optimizes the impact of frequent observations in short-range forecasts   Session 3 : Data assimilation chairs : Sue Ballard and Andrea Rossa 09h24 - 09h54 keynote : François Bouttier (Météo-France - France) The potential of data assimilation for nowcasting: promises and limits of a 3-D variational approach   09h54 - 10h06 Sue Ballard (The Met Office - United Kingdom) Development of 1-4KM resolutation data assimilation for nowcasting at the Met Office 10h06 - 10h18 Luc Fillion (MSC - Canada) Balanced coupling between vertical motion and diabatic forcing for mesoscale data assimilation 10h06 - 10h18 Geneviève Jaubert (Météo-France - France) Meso-gamma 3D Var assimilation of surface measurements on heavy rain events : impact on short range high resolution simulations   10h30 - 11h00 coffee break and Posters sessions 1-2-3-4 viewing   11h00 - 11h12 Qingnong Xiao (NCAR - United States of America) Assimilation of doppler radar observations using wrf/mm5 3d-var system and its impact on short-range QPF 11h12 - 11h24 Soichiro Sugimoto (NCAR - United States of America) Potential benefits of multiple-doppler radar data to quantative precipitation forecasting : assimilation of simulated data using the WRF 3DVAR system 11h24 - 11h36 Hans-Stefan Bauer (Univ. of Hohenheim - Germany) Assimilation of high resolution dial water vapor data into the MM5 modeling system : comparison of the performance of different assimilation methods 11h36 - 11h48 Keith Brewster (Univ. of Oklahoma - United States of America) Efficient assimilation of radar data at high resolution or short-range numerical weather prediction 11h48 - 12h00 Andrea Rossa (CMT - Italy) Evaluation of the latent heat nudging scheme for the rainfall assimilation at the meso-gamma scale 12h00 - 12h12 Qingyun Zhao (NRL - United States of America) Improving very-short-term storm prediction by assimilating radar and satellite data into a mesoscale NWP model 12h12 - 12h24 Shu-Hua Chen (Univ. of California - United States of America) Improvement of short-term severe weather forecasting using high-resolution MODIS satellite data 12h24 - 12h36 Rod Frehlich (NCAR - United States of America) Adaptive data assimilation to include spatially variable observation error statistics 12h36 - 12h48 Christian Pagé (Univ. du Québec - Canada) Nonlinear balance at mesoscale : balances vertical motion with respect to model convection temperature tendecies. A real case study at 2.5 km   12h48 - 13h00 picture of conference participants   13h00 - 14h30 lunch and continuation of Posters sessions 1-2-3-4 viewing Afternoon Session 4 : Observational needs chairs : Walt Dabberdt and Tom Keenan 14h30 - 15h00 keynote : Gladys Ramothwa (MS - Botswana) Nowcasting and very short range forecasting issues in Africa   15h00 - 15h12 O. Kryvobok (UHRI - Ukraine) Using Meteosat second generation high resolution visible data for the improvement of the rapid developping thunderstorm product 15h12 - 15h24 Walter Dabberdt (Vaisala - United States of America) Multi-functional mesoscale observing networks in support of integrated forecasting system 15h24 - 15h36 Steve Goodman (NASA - United States of America) PRE-launch GOES-R Risk Reduction activities for the geostationary lightning mapper 15h36 - 15h48 Julie Haggerty (NCAR - United States of America) Integration of advanced satellite cloud products into an icing nowcasting system 15h48 - 16h00 Pierre Tabary (Météo-France - France) The new french operational convetional radar products   16h00 - 16h30 coffee break and Posters sessions 1-2-3-4 viewing   16h30 - 17h00 keynote : Silas Chr. Michaelides (MS - Cyprus) Activities on short-range forecasting methods of fog, visibility and low clouds in EU COST action 722   17h00 - 17h12 Thierry Bergot (Météo-France - France) Improved site-specific numerical prediction of fog and low clouds 17h12 - 17h24 Mathias Müller (Univ. of Basel - Switzerland) Fog prediction in a 3D model with parameterized microphysics 17h24 - 17h36 Scott Swerdlin (NCAR - United States of America) Combining mesoscale, nowcast, and CFD model output in near real-time for protecting urban areas and buildings from releases of hazardous airborne materials 17h36 - 17h48 Geoff Austin (Univ. of Auckland - New Zealand) Nowcasting orographic rainfall : the effects of microphysical processes 17h48 - 18h00 Uta Gjertsen (NMI - Norway) Radar data quality the challenge of beam blockages and propagation changes   19h00 Reception at the City Hall Wednesday September 7th Morning Session 5 : Applications chairs : Thierry Bergot and Paul Joe 09h00 - 09h18 David Mc Laughlin (Univ. of Ma ssachussetts - United States of America) Short wavelength technology and the potential for distributed networks of small radar systems 09h18 - 09h30 Robert Kuligowski (NOAA/NESDIS - United States of America) The Hydro-Nowcaster : recent improvements and future plans 09h30 - 09h42 Katia Chancibault (Météo-France - France) Evaluation of a non hydrostatic mesoscale model for discharge forecasting 09h42 - 09h54 Ryohei Misumi (NRIESDP - Japan) Realtime forecasting of shallow landslides using radar-derived rainfall 09h54 - 10h06 Neil I. Fox (Univ. of Missouri - United States of America) Forecasting storm duration 10h06 - 10h18 J. William Conway (WDT - United States of America) Applications of the McGill algorithm for precipitation nowcasting using semi-lagrangian extrapolation within the Arpav hydromet decision support system 10h18 - 10h30 George Isaac (MSC - Canada) Nowcasting ariport winter weather : avisa tests during airs   10h30 - 11h00 coffee break and Posters sessions 5-6-7-8 viewing   11h00 - 11h30 keynote : Willi Schmid (Meteoradar GMBH - Switzerland) New approaches for nowcasting winter road weather over a complex orography   11h30 - 11h42 Bill Dupree (MIT Lincoln Laboratory - United States of America) Tactical 0-2 hour convective weather forecasts for FAA 11h42 - 11h54 Steve Weygandt (NOAA - United States of America) Hourly RUC convective probability forecasts using ensembles and radar assimilation 11h54 - 12h06 James Pinto (NCAR/RAL - United States of America) Toward developing a new operational system for the short term prediction of convection: Fusing observation- and model-based probability forecasts 12h06 - 12h18 Cory Wolff (NCAR - United States of America) Nowcasting aircraft icing conditions using goes-derived satellite products 12h18 - 12h30 Nathan Uhlenbrock (Univ. of Wisconsin - United States of America) The use of satellite water vapor imagery and model data to diagnose and forecast turbulent mountain waves 12h30 - 12h42 Robert Sharman (NCAR - United States of America) The operational prediction of mountain wave turbulence using a multi-nested nonhydrostatic mesoscale model   12h45 - 13h00 weather briefing   13h00 - 14h00 lunch Afternoon 14h00 - 19h30 Excursion to the medieval city of Carcassonne Thursday September 8th Morning Session 6 : Very short range NWP chairs : Véronique Ducrocq and Augusto Pereira 09h00 - 09h30 keynote : Ko Koizumi (JMA - Japon) Assimilation of various observational data using JMA meso 4D-VAR and its impact on precipitation forecast   09h30 - 09h42 Stan Benjamin (NOAA - United States of America) The NOAA rapid update cycle 1-H assimilation cycle in support of aviation/transportation, severe weather, and tactical forecasting 09h42 - 09h54 Véronique Ducrocq (Météo-France - France) High-resolution non-hydrostatic Numerical Weather Prediction of Mediterranean torrential rain events 09h54 - 10h06 Humphrey Lean (The Met Office - United Kingdom) Trials of a 1km version of the Unified Model for short range forecasting of convective events 10h06 - 10h18 Jishan Xue (People's - Republic of China) GRAPES_Based Nowcasting Design and Progress at CMA 10h18 - 10h30 Daniel Leuenberger (MeteoSwiss - Switzerland) Next generation NWP at Meteoswiss and potential contributions of weather radars   10h30 - 11h00 coffee break and Posters sessions 5-6-7-8 viewing   11h00 - 11h12 Ying-Hwa Kuo (NCAR - United States of America) Prediction of the 10 July 2004 Beijing Flood with a High-Resolution NWP Model 11h12 - 11h24 David Dowell (CIMMS - United States of America) Assimilating reflectivity observations of convective storms into convection-permitting NWP models 11h24 - 11h36 Morris L Weisman (United States of America) Experiences with 0-36 Hour explicit convective forecasting with the WRF-EM model 11h36 - 11h48 Dong-Kyou Lee (Univ. of Seoul - Republic of Korea) Heavy rainfall prediction over East Asia using the high resolution WRF model 11h48 - 12h00 Charles Lin (Mc Gill Univ. - Canada) Quantitative evaluation of precipitation from numerical weather prediction models, radar nowcasts and satellites 12h00 - 12h12 Augusto José Pereira Filho (Univ. of São Paulo - Brazil) A hydrometeorological forecast system for the metropolitan area of São Paulo Session 8 : Verification chairs : Barb Brown and Pertti Nurmi 12h12 - 12h24 Marion Mittermaier (The Met Office - United Kingdom) The use of an intensity-scale technique for assessing operational mesoscale precipitation forecasts 12h24 - 12h36 Nigel Roberts (The Met Office - United Kingdom) Assessment of the ability of a storm scale NWP model to predict flood-producing rainfall 12h36 - 12h48 Daniela Rezacova (IAP - Czech Republic) The use of radar data in the verification of a high resolution quantitative forecast of convective precipitation 12h48 - 13h00 Michael Kay (CIRES/FSL - United States of America) Near real-time verification at Forecast Systems Laboratory : an operational perspective   13h00 - 14h30 lunch and continuation of Posters sessions 5-6-7-8 viewing Afternoon Session 7 : Operational systems chairs : Stéphane Sénési and Peter Li 14h30 - 15h00 keynote : Brian Golding (The Met Office - United Kingdom) A new approach to nowcasting at the Met Office   15h00 - 15h12 Pascal Brovelli (Météo-France - France) Nowcasting thunderstorms with sigoons - a significant weather object oriented nowcasting system 15h12 - 15h24 Paul Joe (MSC - Canada) Severe Weather Forecasting Tools in NinJo 15h24 - 15h36 Iori Sugiura (JMA - Japan) Very-short-range forecast of precipitation in Japan 15h36 - 15h48 Ping-Wah Li (Hong Kong Observatory People's - Republic of China) RAPIDS - A new rainstorm nowcasting system in Hong Kong 15h48 - 16h00 Klaus Bähnke (DWD - Germany) Nowcasting and warnings at Deutscher Wetterdienst   16h00 - 16h30 coffee break and Posters sessions 5-6-7-8 viewing   16h30 - 16h42 Xiaoding Yu (CMA - People's Republic of China) Overview of Beijing 2008 Olympics WWRP Nowcast FDP and implementation plan 16h42 - 16h54 Rita Roberts (NCAR - United States of America) The NWS/NCAR Man-In-The-Loop (MITL) demonstration : forecaster input into a thunderstorm nowcasting system 16h54 - 17h06 David Sills (Environment - Canada) Development and use of a prototype nowcasting system focused on optimization of the human-machine mix 17h06 - 17h18 Tony Bannister (BMRC - Australia) An end-to-end severe thunderstorm forecasting system in Australia : overview and training issues 17h18 - 17h30 Ales Poredos (EARS - Republic of Slovenia) Development of common nowcastins tools in central european national weather services 17h30 - 17h42 Arnold Tafferner (DLR-0 IAP - Germany) DONAR – Detection of severe weather objects, nowcasting and areal risk assessment for the upper Danube catchment 17h42 - 17h54 Cesar Beneti (SIMEPAR - Brazil) Severe weather analysis and forecasting with the integration of lightning, radar and satellite information in operational center in Brazil   19h30 Social event at Salle des Colonnes, Hôtel Dieu Friday September 9th Morning Session 8 : Verification (continuation) chairs : Barb Brown and Pertti Nurmi 09h00 - 09h30 keynote : Elizabeth Ebert (BMRC - Australia) Verification of nowcasts and very short range forecasts   09h30 - 09h42 Barbara Casati (MSC - Canada) A new spatial scale decomposition of the Brier score for the verification of probabilistic lightning forecasts 09h42 - 09h54 Barbara Brown (NCAR - United States of America) Object-based verification of convective nowcasts 09h54 - 10h06 Christoph Zingerle (FMI - Finland) Adaptation of an entity based verification method for short-range cloud forecasts utilizing satellite data 10h06 - 10h18 Christian Keil (DLR-O IAP - Germany) Forecast quality control applying an object-oriented approach using remote sensing information 10h18 - 10h30 Olivier Caumont (Météo-France - France) A radar simulator as a validation tool for every short-term forecasts 10h30 - 10h42 Pertti Nurmi (FMI - Finland) Probabilistic forecasts and their verification as decision-making tools for warnings against near-gale force winds 10h42 - 10h54 Tom Keenan (BMRC - Australia) Verification of operational thunderstorm nowcasts   11h00 - 11h30 coffee break   11h30 - 13h00 Panel : the future of nowcasting and very short range forecasting The list of accepted abstracts is available under this link.