Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

WTIO20 FMEE 131200 SECURITE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 13/10/2005 AT 1200 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 004/02 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 13/10/2005 AT 1200 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 2 1003 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 7.8S / 85.5E (SEVEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY FIVE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 12 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 150 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 200 NM IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 25 KT AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, LOCALLY REACHING NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE WITHIN 180 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2005/10/14 AT 00 UTC: 9.3S / 84.2E, MAX WIND = 25 KT. 24H, VALID 2005/10/14 AT 12 UTC: 10.5S / 83.0E, MAX WIND = 25 KT. OTHER INFORMATIONS: EASTERLY WINDSHEAR HAS SLIGHTLY DECREASED, ALLOWING CONVECTION TO REBUILT NEAR THE CENTRE. HOWEVER, CONVECTION IS STILL FLUCTUATING A LOT. THE SYSTEM SHOULD GENERALLY TRACK SOUTHWESTWARDS, ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL PRESSURES. SYSTEM INTENSITY DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNINGS.