Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

WTIO20 FMEE 151800 SECURITE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 15/10/2005 AT 1800 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 012/02 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 15/10/2005 AT 1800 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 2 1003 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.9S / 79.6E (THIRTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY NINE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 150 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 20/25 KT AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, LOCALLY REACHING NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT OR EVEN GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE WITHIN 200 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2005/10/16 AT 06 UTC: 14.3S / 78.4E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, DISSIPATING. 24H, VALID 2005/10/16 AT 18 UTC: 14.6S / 77.1E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, DISSIPATING. OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE SYSTEM IS LARGELY DISORGANIZED. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED WITH BUOY 56517 (1003.4 HPA AT 1410Z NEAR 13.98S/80.83E). CURRENT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE UNFAVORABLE FOR ANOTHER INTENSIFICATION. NEVERTHELESS, DUE TO THE GRADIENT EFFECT, 30/35 KT FORCE WINDS STILL EXIST FAR FROM THE CENTRE IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THIS IS THE LAST WARNING ADVISORY ISSUED ABOUT THIS SYSTEM UNLESS RE-INTENSIFICATION (UNLIKELY).