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Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00 Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48 Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

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WTIO20 FMEE 271800
SECURITE
WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 27/11/2005 AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 21/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND).
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 27/11/2005 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 5 (EX-ALVIN) 999 HPA
POSITION: 12.4S / 83.3E
(TWELVE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY THREE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-NORTH-WEST 5 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS LOCALLY AND MAINLY IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE, EXTENDING UP TO 300 NM FROM THE CENTER.

CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 20/25KT, REACHING LOCALLY NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS NEAR THE CENTRE IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2005/11/28 AT 06 UTC:
11.9S / 82.1E, MAX WIND = 25 KT.
24H, VALID 2005/11/28 AT 18 UTC:
11.3S / 80.9E, MAX WIND = 25 KT.

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
THE RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION IS STILL WELL ORGANIZED AND CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, WEAK AT THE END OF THE DAY, COULD REBUILD DURING THE NIGHT.
STRONGEST WINDS ARE LOCATED IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE DUE TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES.

SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS WITH A RATHER A WEAK INTENSITY.