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Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00 Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48 Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

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WTIO20 FMEE 280000
SECURITE
WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 28/11/2005 AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 022/05 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND).
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 28/11/2005 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 5 (EX-ALVIN) 999 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.3S / 83.3E
(TWELVE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY THREE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: QUASI-STATIONARY

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 50NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING LOCALLY UP TO 200 NM FROM THE CENTRE IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 20/25KT, REACHING LOCALLY NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS NEAR THE CENTRE IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2005/11/28 AT 12 UTC:
12.1S / 82.0E, MAX WIND = 25 KT.
24H, VALID 2005/11/29 AT 00 UTC:
11.7S / 80.6E, MAX WIND = 25 KT.

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
DUE TO DIURNAL CYCLE, CONVECTION HAS STARTED AGAIN OVER THE CENTRE DURING THE NIGHT.
STRONGEST WINDS ARE LOCATED IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE DUE TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES.

SYSTEM HAS BEEN ALMOST-SQTATIONNARU DURING LAST HOURS. IT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS WITH A RATHER A WEAK INTENSITY.