Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

WTIO20 FMEE 280600 SECURITE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 28/11/2005 AT 0600 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 023/05 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 28/11/2005 AT 0600 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 5 (EX-ALVIN) 1000 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.5S / 83.3E (TWELVE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY THREE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC MOVEMENT: QUASI-STATIONARY THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING LOCALLY UP TO 200 NM FROM THE CENTRE IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 20/25KT AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, REACHING LOCALLY NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2005/11/28 AT 18 UTC: 12.4S / 82.5E, MAX WIND = 25 KT. 24H, VALID 2005/11/29 AT 06 UTC: 12.3S / 81.5E, MAX WIND = 25 KT. OTHER INFORMATIONS: CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED TO THE RESIDUAL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION IS VERY FLUCTUATING. STRONGEST WINDS ARE LOCATED IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE DUE TO THE GRADIENT EFFECT WITH SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES. THE SYSTEM IS QUASI-STATIONARY BUT IT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS FILLING UP GRADUALLY.