Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

WTIO20 FMEE 280000 SECURITE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 28/12/2005 AT 0000 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 17/6 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 28/12/2005 AT 0000 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 6 1004 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 50 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.6S / 66.6E (FIFTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY SIX DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 8 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS MAINLY IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE, EXTENDING UP TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 20/25 KT AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, LOCALLY REACHING NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE DUE TO THE GRADIENT EFFECT. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2005/12/28 AT 12 UTC: 16.1S / 65.1E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, PERTURB. TROPICALE. 24H, VALID 2005/12/29 AT 00 UTC: 16.7S / 63.1E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, DEPR. TROPICALE. OTHER INFORMATIONS: LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS BAD DEFINED AND HAS BEEN RELOCALISED MORE NORTHEASTERN. DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS CYCLIC AND IS MAINLY LOCATED SOUTHWEST FROM THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. POTENTIAL FOR INTENSIFICATION REMAINS LIMITED. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS WITHOUT INTENSIFYING SIGNIFICANTLY. INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNINGS.