Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

WTIO20 FMEE 260000 SECURITE STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 26/02/2006 AT 0000 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 013/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). STORM WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 26/02/2006 AT 0000 UTC. PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 10 (CARINA) 972 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.6S / 79.8E (THIRTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY NINE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 5 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 200 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 50 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 100 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/02/26 AT 12 UTC: 14.4S / 79.2E, MAX WIND = 65 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL. 24H, VALID 2006/02/27 AT 00 UTC: 15.1S / 78.7E, MAX WIND = 70 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL. OTHER INFORMATIONS: LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT BECOMES LESS FAVOURABLE DUE TO THE HIGH PRESSURES MOVING EASTWARDS. SO, CARINA HAS ALWAYS DIFFICULTIES TO ORGANIZE ITSELF. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON SLOWLY TRACKING GLOBALLY SOUTHWESTWARDS AND SLOWLY BUT GRADUALLY INTENSIFYING. AT MEDIUM RANGE , CARINA SHOULD VEERING SOUTHWARDS THEN SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARDS TOWARD A POLAR TROUGH EXISTING IN LOW AND MID LEVELS.