Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

WTIO20 FMEE 271200 PAN PAN HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 27/02/2006 AT 1200 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 019/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). HURRICANE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 27/02/2006 AT 1200 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (CARINA) 945 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.4S / 79.7E (FIFTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY NINE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 5 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 100 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 220 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN AND NORTHWESTERN QUADRANTS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/85 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS NEAR THE CENTRE. STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 150 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 220 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/02/28 AT 00 UTC: 16.1S / 79.0E, MAX WIND = 90 KT, CYCL. TROP. INTENSE. 24H, VALID 2006/02/28 AT 12 UTC: 16.8S / 77.6E, MAX WIND = 100 KT, CYCL. TROP. INTENSE. OTHER INFORMATIONS: "CARINA" KEEPS ON INTENSIFYING GRADUALLY, THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVOURABLE. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK MAINLY SOUTHWESTWARDS DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS, BEFORE TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES BUILDING IN THE SOUTH.