Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

WTIO20 FMEE 010600 PAN PAN HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 01/03/2006 AT 0600 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 026/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). HURRICANE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 01/03/2006 AT 0600 UTC. PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (CARINA) 920 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.5S / 77.8E (SEVENTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY SEVEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH 4 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 100 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE EXTENDING UP TO 150 NM IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/110 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN 50 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 80 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 100 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/03/01 AT 18 UTC: 18.2S / 77.5E, MAX WIND = 70 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL. 24H, VALID 2006/03/02 AT 06 UTC: 18.9S / 77.1E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, FORTE TEMP. TROP.. OTHER INFORMATIONS: "CARINA" IS UNDERGOING LESS FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ANS IS WEAKENING. IT IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON WEAKENING RAPIDLY DURING ITS TRACK SOUTHWARDS TOWARDS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH. BEYOND 24 TO 36 HOURS, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO UNDERGO THE INFLUENCE OF THE LOW LEVELS STEERING AND COULD ALSO VEERING SOUTHWESTWARDS OR WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE REBUILDING SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES.