Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

WTIO20 FMEE 011200 PAN PAN HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 01/03/2006 AT 1200 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 027/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). HURRICANE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 01/03/2006 AT 1200 UTC. PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (CARINA) 940 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.5S / 76.6E (SEVENTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY SIX DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 8 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 70 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE EXTENDING UP TO 230 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/90 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN 50 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 80 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 100 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/03/02 AT 00 UTC: 18.2S / 75.2E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, FORTE TEMP. TROP.. 24H, VALID 2006/03/02 AT 12 UTC: 18.6S / 73.9E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, FORTE TEMP. TROP.. OTHER INFORMATIONS: LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER OF THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN RELOCATED MORE NORTHERN AND HAS PROBABLY NOT VEERED SOUTHWARDS AS THE 0600UTC WARNING SHOWED BUT KEEPS ON TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS AND A LITTLE BIT SPEEDING UP. DEEP CONVECTION HAS IMPLODED LAST NIGHT AND "CARINA" IS WEAKENED RAPIDLY. SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO UNDERGO THE INFLUENCE OF THE LOW LEVELS STEERING BEYOND 24 TO 36 HOURS AND COULD ALSO VEERING WESTWARDS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES. IT IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON WEAKENING DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS.