Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

WTIO20 FMEE 020600 PAN PAN HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 02/03/2006 AT 0600 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 030/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). HURRICANE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 02/03/2006 AT 0600 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (CARINA) 965 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.3S / 78.0E (NINETEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY EIGHT DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 9 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 100 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE EXTENDING UP TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/70 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS NEAR THE CENTRE. STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 30 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/03/02 AT 18 UTC: 20.2S / 79.3E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, FORTE TEMP. TROP.. 24H, VALID 2006/03/03 AT 06 UTC: 20.8S / 78.9E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, TEMP. TROP. MODEREE. OTHER INFORMATIONS: CENTRE IS RELOCATED IN THE SOUTHEAST. THE SYSTEM HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARDS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ASSOCIATED CONVECTION ACTIVITY HAS TEMPORARILY INCREASED OVER LAST NIGHT, BUT THE SYSTEM NOW KEEPS ON WEAKENING IN A VERY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. AT A WEAK STAGE, THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE STEERED BY SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES BUILDING IN THE SOUTH AND GENERALLY TRACK WESTWARDS BEYOND 12 TO 18 HOURS.