Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

WTIO22 FMEE 050600 SECURITE GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 05/03/2006 AT 0600 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 013/11 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). GALE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 05/03/2006 AT 0600 UTC. PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 11 (DIWA) 993 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.5S / 53.7E (NINETEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 5 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 100 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER SUPPOSED TO BE THE MAIN, EXTENDING UP TO 300 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 25/30 KT AND ROUGH SEAS NEAR THE CENTRE, BUT LOCALLY REACHING GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE WITHIN 250 NM OF THE CENTRE, AND LOCALLY REACHING NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE WITHIN 300 NM OF THE CENTER. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/03/05 AT 18 UTC: 20.2S / 53.2E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, TEMP. TROP. MODEREE. 24H, VALID 2006/03/06 AT 06 UTC: 21.4S / 52.4E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, FORTE TEMP. TROP.. OTHER INFORMATIONS: THERE IS AN HIGH PROBABILITY THAT A SECONDARY LOW LEVEL CENTER EXISTS SOUTH OF THE MAIN LLCC, LOCATED NEAR 20.4S/54.3E UNDER THE DEEP CONVECTION. THE LOW LEVEL CENTER IN THIS WARNING IS SUPPOSED TO STAY THE MAIN ONE. THE QUESTION IS NOW TO KNOW IF THIS SECONDARY LLCC KEEPS ON DEEPENING AND IF IT COULD BECOMMING THE MAIN LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. IN THIS CASE, THE FORECASTED TRACK SHOULD BE TRANSLATED. IN ANY CASE, "DIWA" IS EXPECTED TO TRACK GLOBALLY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARDS AND INTENSIFYING GRADUALLY AND THEN VEERING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARDS AT MEDIUM RANGE.