Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

WTIO22 FMEE 290600 SECURITE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 29/11/2006 AT 0600 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 008/02 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 29/11/2006 AT 0600 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 2 1003 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.1S / 41.8E (TEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY ONE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 200 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 350 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 20/25 KT AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, REACHING LOCALY 30KT IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/11/29 AT 18 UTC: 10.4S / 40.8E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H, VALID 2006/11/30 AT 06 UTC: 10.8S / 40.0E, OVERLAND. OTHER INFORMATIONS: CONVECTIVE (THUNDERY) ACTIVITY IS IMPORTANT, GENERATING HEAVY RAINS ON THE NORTH OF MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, FROM THE COMOROS ARCHIPELAGO TO AFRICAN COASTS, BUT IT REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED. IN LOW LEVEL, CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION DOESN'T INTENSIFY AND REMAINS WEAK AROUND A CENTRE WHICH IS HARD TO LOCATE ON AVALAIBLE DATA. THE SYSTEM SHOULD TRACK TOWARDS AFRICAN COASTS BEFORE CURVING SOUTHWARDS, GENERATING HEAVY RAINS ON THE NORTHEAST OF MOZAMBIQUE.