Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

WTIO20 FMEE 261200 SECURITE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 26/12/2006 AT 1200 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 004/04 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 26/12/2006 AT 1200 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 4 1002 HPA POSITION: 8.3S / 60.6E (EIGHT DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 8 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER LOCATED BETWEEN 100NM AND 300NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHWESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 20/25 KT AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS AROUND THE CENTRE, LOCALLY REACHING NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30KT KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS FAR FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTH AND NORTHWESTERN SECTORS. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/12/27 AT 00 UTC: 8.8S / 59.0E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H, VALID 2006/12/27 AT 12 UTC: 9.4S / 57.3E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. OTHER INFORMATIONS: CONVECTIVE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS VERY IMPORTANT SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW LEVEL CENTER, WICH IS STILL EXPOSED (NOT UNDER CLOUDS). CONDITIONS FOR INTENSIFICATION ARE FAVORABLE IN LOWLEVEL, BUT UNFAVORABLE IN HIGH LEVEL. SO, THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS WELL DEFINED, VERY CIRCULAR, BUT THERE SHOULD BE NO SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AT THIS STAGE, THE INTENSITY DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNINGS.