Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

WTIO22 FMEE 261800 SECURITE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 26/12/2006 AT 1800 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 005/04 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 26/12/2006 AT 1800 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 4 1002 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 8.9S / 59.3E (EIGHT DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 11 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS BETWEEN 50 NM AND 250 NM FROM THE ESTIMATED CENTER IN THE WESTERN SECTOR. CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 20/25 KT AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS NEAR THE CENTRE, LOCALLY REACHING NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30KT KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS UP TO 80 NM IN THE NORTHWESTERN SECTOR AND UP TO 130 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SECTOR. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/12/27 AT 06 UTC: 9.6S / 57.6E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H, VALID 2006/12/27 AT 18 UTC: 10.4S / 56.0E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. OTHER INFORMATIONS: CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED TO THE SYSTEM HAS CONSOLIDATED IN THE WESTERN SECTOR OF THE ESTIMATED CENTER, OVER THE VERY LAST HOURS. CONDITIONS FOR INTENSIFICATION ARE FAVORABLE IN LOW LEVELS (WELL ESTABLISHED TRADE WINDS AND MONSOON FLOW) BUT UNFAVORABLE IN HIGH LEVELS. STRONGER WINDS EXTEND FAR FROM THE CENTER DUE TO THE GRADIENT EFFECT. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS WELL DEFINED (ACCORDING TO RECENT SATELLITE DATA) BUT THERE SHOULD NOT BE SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AT THIS STAGE, THE INTENSITY DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNINGS.