Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

WTIO22 FMEE 280000 SECURITE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 28/12/2006 AT 0000 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 009/04 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 28/12/2006 AT 0000 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 4 1001 HPA POSITION: 10.1S / 55.3E (TEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY FIVE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 8 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER CAN EXIST LOCALLY UP TO 400NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE WESTERN SECTOR. CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 15/25 KT AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS NEAR THE CENTRE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/12/28 AT 12 UTC: 10.9S / 53.9E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H, VALID 2006/12/29 AT 00 UTC: 11.5S / 52.9E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE ENVIRONMENT IS NOT YET FAVOURABLE FOR AN INTENSIFICATION BUT IT IS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. THE THUNDERY ACTIVITY IS FLUCTUATING WEST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING MAINLY SOUTHWESTWARDS, INTENSIFYING GRADUALLY AT MEDIUM RANGE. UNTIL THIS EXPECTED INTENSIFICATION, THE SYSTEM INTENSITY DOES NOT REQUIRE ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNING.