Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

WTIO22 FMEE 281200 SECURITE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 28/12/2006 AT 1200 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 011/04 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 28/12/2006 AT 1200 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 4 1001 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.0S / 53.9E (ELEVEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 200 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, MAINLY IN THE WESTERN AND EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND EXTENDING UP TO 400NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE EASTERN SECTOR. CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 20/25 KT AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS NEAR THE CENTRE, REACHING LOCALLY 30KT UNDER SQUALLS . STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/12/29 AT 00 UTC: 11.4S / 52.6E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H, VALID 2006/12/29 AT 12 UTC: 11.9S / 51.9E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT BECOMES NOW MORE FAVOURABLE FOR AN INTENSIFICATION AS THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS WEAKENING. CONVECTION HAS REBUILT NEAR THE CENTER , AND SEEMS MORE PERSISTENT. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING MAINLY SOUTHWESTWARDS, INTENSIFYING GRADUALLY.