Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

WTIO22 FMEE 291200 SECURITE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 29/12/2006 AT 1200 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 001/05 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 29/12/2006 AT 1200 UTC. PHENOMENON: ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER 5 1005 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.0S / 57.8E (TWELVE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SEVEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH 4 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 130 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 350 MN IN THE NORTHEASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 15/20KT AND MODERATE SEAS NEAR THE CENTER, REACHING LOCALLY 30KT UNDER SQUALLS. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/12/30 AT 00 UTC: 12.5S / 57.8E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H, VALID 2006/12/30 AT 12 UTC: 12.9S / 57.4E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER MONITORED AND NUMBERED 4 HAS DISSIPATED BUT THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH EX- TROPICAL DISTURBANCE NR4 HAS PERSISTED. DURING THE NIGHT, SEVERAL RELATIVE AND SHORT-LIVED CENTERS HAVE PROBABLY EXIST AT THE MERCY OF CONVECTIVE PULSATIONS, MAINLY EAST OF 55E. LAST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS NOW A NEW CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION ORGANIZED AROUND A NEW CENTER APPEARING TO BE THE MAIN. EVEN THIS NEW CENTER IS ISSUED FROM THE SAME THUNDERY AREA THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE, DISSIPATING OF THE FIRST MONITORED ONE AND THE GENESIS OF THIS NEW ONE JUSTIFY THE RE-NUMBERING. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO KEEPS ON TRACKING SLOWLY SOUTHWARDS THEN SOUTHWESTWARDS , INTENSIFYING PROGRESSIVELY. AT THIS STAGE, THE SYSTEM INTENSITY DOES NOT REQUIRE ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNINGS.