Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
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WTIO22 FMEE 011200 SECURITE STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 01/01/2007 AT 1200 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 013/05 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). STORM WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 01/01/2007 AT 1200 UTC. PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 5 (CLOVIS) 984 HPA POSITION: 18.0S / 52.4E (EIGHTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY TWO DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 8 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 120 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING LOCALLY UP TO 300 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. STORM FORCE WINDS 50KT AND VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 50 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 70 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 180 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2007/01/02 AT 00 UTC: 19.5S / 51.1E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 24H, VALID 2007/01/02 AT 12 UTC: 20.5S / 50.4E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=3.0 AND CI=3.5. THE INTENSITY, STATIONARY LAST NIGTH, SEEMS WEAKEN AS THE FEEDING FLOWS, THE NO-DIRECT MOOSON FLOW IN THE NORTH AND THE TRADES FLOW IN THE SOUTH, ARE WEAKENING. THE DRY AIR EXISTING IN THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM SEEMS TO ACCELERATE THE WEAKENING OF THE CONVECTION. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARDS TOWARDS A POLAR TROUGH LOCATED SOUTH TO MALAGASCAR ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE HIGH GEOPOTENTIELS AT MIDDLE LEVEL, AND THEN SLOW DOWN WEST SOUTHWESTWARDS DUE TO HIGH PRESSURES REBUILDING TO THE SOUTHWEST.