Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
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WTIO20 FMEE 291200 SECURITE GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 29/01/2007 AT 1200 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 006/07 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). GALE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 29/01/2007 AT 1200 UTC. PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 7 (DORA) 996 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.3S / 65.5E (TWELVE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY FIVE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 8 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 180 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, MAINLY IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT, EXTENDING UP TO 500 NM IN THE NORTHEASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. GALE FORCE WINDS 35KT AND ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 20NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING LOCALLY UP TO 50NM IN THE NORTH AND THE SOUTH OF THE CENTRE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2007/01/30 AT 00 UTC: 13.8S / 65.0E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 24H, VALID 2007/01/30 AT 12 UTC: 15.0S / 64.4E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. OTHER INFORMATIONS: SYSTEM SEEMS TO HAVE CURVED SOUTHWESTWARDS, AT THE MINIMAL STAGE OF TROPICAL STORM, WITH CONVECTION WHICH CONSOLIDATES ABOVE THE LLCC. CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR LIGHT INTENSIFICATION. NWM PRODUCTS ARE DIFFERENTS, BOTH FOR THE FORECASTED TRACKS AND INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A CONSENSUS OF THOSE DIFFERENTS FORECASTS.