Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

WTIO20 FMEE 141200 SECURITE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 14/02/2007 AT 1200 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 010/09 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 14/02/2007 AT 1200 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 9 1000 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.4S / 66.4E (FIFTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY SIX DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 11 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 200 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE, EXTENDING LOCALLY UP TO 300 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 20/25 KT AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 90 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, REACHING LOCALLY NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30KT IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2007/02/15 AT 00 UTC: 17.0S / 65.0E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H, VALID 2007/02/15 AT 12 UTC: 18.7S / 63.1E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. OTHER INFORMATIONS: CONVECTION IS UNORGANIZED AND FLUCTUATING, SEEMS TO REBUILD OVER THE CENTER,THE SYSTEM IS MAINLY FED BY MONSOON FLOW IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER BETTER CONDITIONS FOR AN INTENSIFICATION WITHIN 24 HOURS, WITH INCREASING CONVERGENCE IN LOW LEVELS. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARDS TOWARDS THE MASCARENES ISLANDS.