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WTIO24 FMEE 181800
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 18/02/2007 AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 027/09 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND).
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 18/02/2007 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 9 (FAVIO) 980 HPA
POSITION: 26.7S / 47.4E
(TWENTY SIX DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY SEVEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 100 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/55KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN 15 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 80NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2007/02/19 AT 06 UTC:
26.8S / 45.4E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
24H, VALID 2007/02/19 AT 18 UTC:
26.4S / 43.6E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
THIS IS A SMALL SYSTEM, WITH STRONG WINDS VERY CLOSE TO THE CENTER. MICRO-WAVES IMAGERY SHOW A SMALL AND WELL DEFINED EYE IN LOW LEVEL (NOT EVIDENCED ON USUAL INFRA-RED IMAGERY). THE CIRCULATION IS VERY CIRCULAR AND CONCENTRIC AROUND THE CENTER.

FAVIO IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR, FIRST WESTWARDS THEN WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS, TOWARDS MOZAMBICAN COASTLINES, WITH A FORECASTED LANDFALL DURING THE NIGHT OF WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY.
THE SYSTEM SHOULD REMAINS CLOSE TO ITS ACTUAL INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS, AND THEN SHOULD ENCOUNTER BETTER CONDITIONS TO FOR INTENSIFICATION BEYOND 36 TO 48 HOURS.