Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

WTIO20 FMEE 101200 SECURITE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 10/03/2007 AT 1200 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 001/12 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 10/03/2007 AT 1200 UTC. PHENOMENON: ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER 12 1002 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.9S / 61.8E (FOURTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY ONE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 140 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER , MORE ACTIVE IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE EXTENDING LOCALLY TO 400 NM IN THE WESTERN AND THE EASTERN SECTORS ALONG THE ICTZ. WIDE CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 20KT AND MODERATE SEAS AROUND THE CENTER, REACHING LOCALLY NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30KT AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS FAR FROM THE CENTER IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT AND THE SOUTHEN SEMI-CIRCLE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2007/03/11 AT 00 UTC: 14.8S / 59.6E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H, VALID 2007/03/11 AT 12 UTC: 14.2S / 58.7E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. OTHER INFORMATIONS: THIS ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS RATHER LARGE PRESENTING A MOSOON LOW FEATURE WITH STRONGEST WINDS RATHER FAR FROM THE CENTER MAINLY LOCATED IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT AND THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. NEVERTHELESS THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS TO REACH THE MINIMAL STAGE OF MODERATE TROPICAL STROM AND THEN TO STAY AT THIS INTENSITY DURING THE 36 HOURS BEYOND LINKED TO A BUILDING EASTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR. IT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK GLOBALLY WESTWARDS AT 5 TO 10KT. AT THIS STAGE, THIS SYSTEM DOESN'T JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNINGS.1002