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WTIO20 FMEE 141200
SECURITE
WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 14/03/2007 AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 003/13 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND).
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 14/03/2007 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER 13 1003 HPA
POSITION: 16.3S / 75.4E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY FIVE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 3 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS UP TO 600MN FROM EACH PART SOUTH-EAST AND NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER, ALONG AN AXIS EXTENDING FROM 8S/66E TO 22S/84E.

WIDE CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 20 KT AND MODERATE SEAS AROUND THE CENTER, LOCALLY REACHING NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH SEAS IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE UP TO 60 NM.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2007/03/15 AT 00 UTC:
17.1S / 74.9E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
24H, VALID 2007/03/15 AT 12 UTC:
17.9S / 74.4E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
TAKING BENEFIT OF A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT, THEN MORE FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENT, THIS AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONSOLIDATE AND TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS, THEN MORE SIGNIFICANTLY BEYOND.

NUMERICAL WEATHER MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THEIR FORECASTS OF TRACK AND INTENSITY, SOME MAKING IT TRACK GLOBALLY WESTWARDS, OTHER SOUTHWESTWARDS TO SOUTHWARDS. THE RSMC FORECAST IS A CONSENSUS.

AT THIS STAGE, THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNINGS.