Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

WTIO20 FMEE 150000 SECURITE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 15/03/2007 AT 0000 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 004/13 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 15/03/2007 AT 0000 UTC. PHENOMENON: ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER 13 1003 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.5S / 75.8E (SIXTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY FIVE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC MOVEMENT: QUASI-STATIONARY THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS ALONG AN AXIS EXTENDING FROM 11S/68E TO 21S/83E. WIDE CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 20 KT AND MODERATE SEAS AROUND THE CENTER, LOCALLY REACHING NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH SEAS IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE UP TO 60 NM. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2007/03/15 AT 12 UTC: 17.0S / 75.5E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H, VALID 2007/03/16 AT 00 UTC: 17.6S / 75.4E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. OTHER INFORMATIONS: THIS AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONSOLIDATE AND TO INTENSIFY GRADUALLY AFTER 24 HOURS. NUMERICAL WEATHER MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT (BOTH TRACK AND INTENSITY), FEW OF THEM TRACK THE SYSTEM MAINLY WESTWARDS, OTHERS SOUTHWESTWARDS TO SOUTHWARDS. THE RSMC FORECAST IS A CONSENSUS. AT THIS STAGE, THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNINGS.