Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

WTIO20 FMEE 151200 SECURITE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 15/03/2007 AT 1200 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 006/13 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 15/03/2007 AT 1200 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 13 1001 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.8S / 76.3E (SEVENTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY SIX DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 6 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 300 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE WIDE CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 20 KT AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS AROUND THE CENTER, LOCALLY REACHING NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE UP TO 60 NM. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2007/03/16 AT 00 UTC: 18.8S / 76.6E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 24H, VALID 2007/03/16 AT 12 UTC: 19.2S / 76.7E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. OTHER INFORMATIONS: ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT FAVOURABLE FOR A SIGNIFICATIVE INTENSIFICATION FOR THIS SYSTEM AND ARE NOT FORSEEN TO IMPROVE WITHIN THE NEXT 72 HOURS. NUMERICAL WEATHER MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT (BOTH TRACK AND INTENSITY), FEW OF THEM TRACK THE SYSTEM MAINLY WESTWARDS, OTHERS SOUTHWESTWARDS TO SOUTHWARDS. THE RSMC FORECAST IS A CONSENSUS. AT THIS STAGE, THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNINGS.