Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

WTIO20 FMEE 160000 SECURITE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 16/03/2007 AT 0000 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 7/13 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 16/03/2007 AT 0000 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 13 1000 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.2S / 76.3E (NINETEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY SIX DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH 8 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 300 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE WIDE CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 20 KT AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS AROUND THE CENTER, LOCALLY REACHING NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE UP TO 60 NM. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2007/03/16 AT 12 UTC: 19.8S / 76.3E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 24H, VALID 2007/03/17 AT 00 UTC: 20.6S / 76.3E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE SYSTEM IS NORTHWESTERLY WINDHEARED, SO DEEP CONVECTION IS PRESENT SOUTHEAST OF A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT FAVOURABLE FOR A SIGNIFICATIVE INTENSIFICATION FOR THIS SYSTEM AND ARE NOT FORSEEN TO IMPROVE WITHIN THE NEXT 72 HOURS. NUMERICAL WEATHER MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT (BOTH TRACK AND INTENSITY). THE RSMC FORECAST IS A CONSENSUS. AT THIS STAGE, THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNINGS.