Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

WTIO20 FMEE 310000 PAN PAN HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 31/03/2007 AT 0000 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 005/14 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). HURRICANE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 31/03/2007 AT 0000 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 14 (JAYA) 970 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.9S / 64.9E (THIRTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY FOUR DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 9 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 120 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER EXTENDING UP TO 160 NM IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65 KT AND VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN 15 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER. STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 50 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2007/03/31 AT 12 UTC: 14.4S / 62.9E, MAX WIND = 70 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 24H, VALID 2007/04/01 AT 00 UTC: 14.9S / 60.5E, MAX WIND = 75 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. OTHER INFORMATIONS: THIS SMALL SIZE SYSTEM KEEPS ON TRACKING GLOBALLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS, ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE REBUILDING SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES BELT. JAYA IS FORSEEN TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY IN A FIRST TIME AND THEN MORE CLEARLY INTENSIFY UNDERGOING VERY FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. IT SHOULD RECURVE NORTHWESTWARDS BEYOND 60H TO 72 HOURS.