Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

WTIO20 FMEE 311800 PAN PAN HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 31/03/2007 AT 1800 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 008/14 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). HURRICANE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 31/03/2007 AT 1800 UTC. PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 14 (JAYA) 930 HPA POSITION: 14.7S / 61.5E (FOURTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY ONE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 12 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 100 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 130 NM IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 180 NM IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/105 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN 25 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER. STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 80 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER EXTENDING UP TO 150 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2007/04/01 AT 06 UTC: 15.3S / 59.1E, MAX WIND = 105 KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 24H, VALID 2007/04/01 AT 18 UTC: 15.6S / 56.7E, MAX WIND = 110 KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. OTHER INFORMATIONS: JAYA IS A SMALL SYSTEM, BOTH IN EXTENSIONS OF ACTIVE DEEP CONVECTION AND STRONG WINDS, WITH A VERY STRONG PRESSUIRE GRADIENT NEAR THE CENTER. THE EYE IS 20NM DIAMETER, WARM AND DRY, WELL DEFINED. DUE TO ITS SMALL SIZE, ITS MINIMAL CENTRAL PRESSURE IS HIGHER THAN IT SHOULD BE FOR A "NORMAL" SIZE SYSTEM OF EQUIVALENT INTENSITY. JAYA KEEPS ON TRACKING REGULARY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS, ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES BELT. JAYA IS FORSEEN TO INTENSIFY GRADUALLY. IT SHOULD RECURVE NORTHWESTWARDS BEYOND THE NEXT 48 HOURS, TOWARDS THE NORTH OF MADAGASCAR. NUMERICAL WEATHER MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THAT TRACK.