Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

WTIO22 FMEE 011200 PAN PAN HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 01/04/2007 AT 1200 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 011/14 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). HURRICANE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 01/04/2007 AT 1200 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 14 (JAYA) 945 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.1S / 57.9E (FIFTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SEVEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC MOVEMENT: WEST 11 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 100 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/85 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER. STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 90 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 150 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2007/04/02 AT 00 UTC: 15.4S / 55.6E, MAX WIND = 80 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 24H, VALID 2007/04/02 AT 12 UTC: 15.6S / 53.7E, MAX WIND = 75 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. OTHER INFORMATIONS: "JAYA" IS A SMALL SYSTEM, BOTH DEEP CONVECTION AND STRONG WINDS EXTENSIONS ARE LIMITED. THE STRONG WINDS EXTENSION IS LARGER IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE DUE TO THE GRADIENT WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE. FOR THE PAST 12 HOURS, THE SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS REVEALED A WEAKENING TENDENCY OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. NEVERTHELESS, DUE TO ITS SMALL SIZE, "JAYA" INTENSITY MAY FLUCTUATE VERY RAPIDLY. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING MAINLY WESTWARDS, TOWARDS THE NORTH OF MADAGASCAR.