Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

WTIO22 FMEE 020000 PAN PAN HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 02/04/2007 AT 0000 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 013/14 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). HURRICANE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 02/04/2007 AT 0000 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 14 (JAYA) 950 HPA POSITION: 15.1S / 55.7E (FIFTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY FIVE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC MOVEMENT: WEST 10 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 100 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 220 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SECTOR AND THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/85 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER. STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 90 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 150 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2007/04/02 AT 12 UTC: 15.0S / 53.5E, MAX WIND = 85 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 24H, VALID 2007/04/03 AT 00 UTC: 14.8S / 51.6E, MAX WIND = 85 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. OTHER INFORMATIONS: "JAYA" IS A SMALL SYSTEM, BOTH DEEP CONVECTION AND STRONG WINDS EXTENSIONS ARE LIMITED. THE STRONG WINDS EXTENSION IS LARGER IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE DUE TO THE GRADIENT WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING MAINLY WESTWARDS, TOWARDS THE NORTH OF MADAGASCAR. THE FORECASTED TRACK IS A CONSENSUS BETWEEN TWO DIFFERENTS SCENARIOS OF THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODELS : THE FIRT ONE MAKES IT TRACK WESTNORTHWESTWARDS AND CROSS RAPIDLY THE NORTH OF MADAGASCAR, THE SECOND ONE MAKES IT TRACK DOWN SOUTHWESTWARDS AFTER ITS LANDFALL, AND THEN DISSIPATES OVERLAND .