Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

WTIO22 FMEE 030600 PAN PAN HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 03/04/2007 AT 0600 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 018/14 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). HURRICANE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 03/04/2007 AT 0600 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 14 (JAYA) 960 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.4S / 50.8E (FOURTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC MOVEMENT: WEST-NORTH-WEST 9 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 70 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 140 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND LOCALLY UP TO 200 NM IN THE EASTERN SECTOR. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/75 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER. STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 80 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2007/04/03 AT 18 UTC: 14.2S / 48.2E, OVERLAND. 24H, VALID 2007/04/04 AT 06 UTC: 14.5S / 45.7E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. OTHER INFORMATIONS: "JAYA" HAS RECURVED WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS AND HAS CLEARLY DISORGANIZED DURING THE NIGHT. THE WEAKENING IS RATHER QUICK AND THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AT ABOUT 0900UTC IN THE VICINITY OF SAMBAVA (MALAGASY) AT THE MINIMAL STAGE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE. HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS ARE FORSEEN BETWEEN SAINTE MARIE AND FANAMBANA DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. "JAYA" SHOULD COME BACK OVER SEA AT TROPICAL DEPRESSION STAGE WITHIN THE NEXT NIGHT SOUTH OF NOSY-BE.