Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

WTIO22 FMEE 031200 PAN PAN HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 03/04/2007 AT 1200 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 019/14 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). HURRICANE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 03/04/2007 AT 1200 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 14 (JAYA) 975 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.4S / 49.8E (FOURTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY NINE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC MOVEMENT: WEST 7 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 70 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 140 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND LOCALLY UP TO 300 NM IN PERIPHERAL BANDS EXISTING IN THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTORS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65 KT WITHIN 15 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER. STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS UP WITHIN 10 NM FROM THE COASTLINE. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS UP WITHIN 50 NM FROM THE COASTLINE. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT WITHIN 50 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 100 NM FROM THE COASTLINE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2007/04/04 AT 00 UTC: 14.3S / 47.2E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 24H, VALID 2007/04/04 AT 12 UTC: 14.8S / 44.9E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. OTHER INFORMATIONS: "JAYA" HAS MADE ITS LANDFALL ABOUT 25 KM SOUTH OF SAMBAVA (MALAGASY) FEW AFTER 0800UTC AT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE. WIND GUSTS HAVE PROBABLY REACHED 180 TO 200 KM/H ON ITS FRONT AND IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE, DONW TO ANTALAHA. IN THE NORTHERN ONE, WESTERLIES (COMING FROM LAND) HAVE CERTAINLY BEEN LESS. SYSTEM KEEPS ON TRACKING GLOBALLY WESTWARDS TO COME BACK OVER SEA NEXT NIGHT BEFORE 0000UTC SOMEWHERE IN THE SOUTH OF NOSY-BE. POTENTIAL FOR RE-INTENSIFICATION IS WEAK IN A FIRST TIME OVER THE MOZAMBICAN CHANNEL BUT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE WITHIN 48 HOURS.