Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
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WTIO22 FMEE 031800 SECURITE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 03/04/2007 AT 1800 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 020/14 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 03/04/2007 AT 1800 UTC. PHENOMENON: OVERLAND DEPRESSION 14 (EX-JAYA) POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.9S / 47.8E (FOURTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY SEVEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 15 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS ALONG EASTERN MALAGASY COAST BETWEEN 12S AND 21 S AND UP TO 120 NM FROM THE COASTLINE, AND ALONG THE WESTERN MALAGASY COAST BETWEEN 13S AND 17S, UP TO 90 NM FROM THE COASTLINE. WINDS UP TO 20/25 KT AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS ALONG THE WESTERN MALAGASY COAST FROM NOSY BE TO MAHAJUNGA AND UP TO 60 NM FROM THE COASTLINE, LOCALLY REACHING NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2007/04/04 AT 06 UTC: 15.5S / 45.5E, MAX WIND = 20 KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H, VALID 2007/04/04 AT 18 UTC: 16.1S / 43.4E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. OTHER INFORMATIONS: BY NOW JAYA QUICKLY CROSSES THE NORTH OF MADAGASCAR. THE CENTRE OF THE SYSTEM, THAT HAS DISORGANIZED OVERLAND, IS DIFFICULT TO PRECISELY LOCATE. HOWEVER JAYA IS FORECAST TO COME BACK OVER WATER VERY SOON IN NARINDA 'S BAY, NEAR ANALALAVA. ONCE BACK OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, JAYA SHOULD GRADUALLY REINTENSIFIED WITH BETTER CONDITIONS BEYOND 24 HOURS.