Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
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WTIO22 FMEE 040000 SECURITE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 04/04/2007 AT 0000 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 021/14 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 04/04/2007 AT 0000 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 14 (EX-JAYA) 1004 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.0S / 47.0E (FIFTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY SEVEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC MOVEMENT: WEST 10 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS ALONG EASTERN MALAGASY COAST BETWEEN 13S AND 22S AND UP TO 150 NM FROM THE COASTLINE, AND ALONG THE WESTERN MALAGASY COAST BETWEEN 13S AND 17S, UP TO 200 NM FROM THE COASTLINE. CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 20/25 KT AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 150 MN RADIUS OF THE ESTIMATED CENTRE, LOCALLY REACHING NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2007/04/04 AT 12 UTC: 15.5S / 44.8E, MAX WIND = 20 KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H, VALID 2007/04/05 AT 00 UTC: 16.3S / 42.9E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE SYSTEM SEEMS TO BE BACK OVER WATER, BUT IT IS FULLY DISORGANIZED AND THE CENTRE IS ESTIMATED, DIFFICULT TO PRECISELY LOCATE. THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE ABLE TO VERY GRADUALLY REINTENSIFY OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, WITH GOOD CONDITIONS BEYOND 24 HOURS.