Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

WTIO22 FMEE 130000 SECURITE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 13/10/2007 AT 0000 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 003/01 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 13/10/2007 AT 0000 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 1 1005 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.8S / 58.4E (TEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY EIGHT DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 8 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 250 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER MAINLY IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT. CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 15/20 KT AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS, REACHING 25KT UP TO 300 NM FROM THE CENTER IN HE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2007/10/13 AT 12 UTC: 11.0S / 56.9E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H, VALID 2007/10/14 AT 00 UTC: 11.0S / 55.2E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE MAIN CENTER IS LOCATED ON THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF DEEP CONVECTION (THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY) WICH HAS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS IN HIGH LEVEL (GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, MAINLY IN THE SOUTHERN PART), BUT NEUTRAL TO UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT IN LOW LEVEL : GOOD LOW LEVEL TRADEWINDS INFLOWS, BUT NO EQUATORWARDS WIND INFLOW, AND ENERGETIC CONDITIONS LIMITATED BECAUSE THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING OVER SEAS WITH SST OF 26.5°c, WICH IS JUST THE MINIMAL THRESHOLD FOR DEVELOPMENT OR PERSISTENCE OF A TROPICAL LOW. THE LOW HAS CURVED WESTSOUTHWESTWARDS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF HIGH PRESSURES BUILDING TO THE SOUTH. IT IS FORECASTED TO TRACK WESTWARDS, THEN WESTNORTHWESTWARDS, WITHOUT INTENSIFYING SIGNIFICANTLY. IT SHOULD COME THE CLOSEST TO AGALEGA (WHERE PRESSURES REMAIN RATHER HIGH DESPITE THE APPROACH OF THE LOW)DURING THIS AFTERNOON. AT THIS INTENSITY, THE SYSTEM DOESN'T JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNINGS.