Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

WTIO22 FMEE 131200 SECURITE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 13/10/2007 AT 1200 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 005/01 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 13/10/2007 AT 1200 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 1 1005 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.2S / 56.4E (ELEVEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SIX DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 11 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 120 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER MAINLY IN THE NORTHWESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 15/25 KT AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS, EXTENDING UP TO 300 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2007/10/14 AT 00 UTC: 10.5S / 54.2E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H, VALID 2007/10/14 AT 12 UTC: 9.5S / 52.0E, MAX WIND = 20 KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. OTHER INFORMATIONS: CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY KEEPS ON WEAKENING LINKED TO A LACK OF EQUATORWARD LOW LEVEL INFLOW AND LIMITATED ENERGETIC CONDITIONS (SST AROUND 26.0/26.5 C, CF BUOY 56556 / 26.3 C AT 0820UTC). MEASURED MSLP AT 0900UTC AT AGALEGA 1008.1HPA (WHEN THE CENTER WAS CLOSEST TO AGALAGA AT ABOUT 65KM IN ITS SOUTH) CONFIRMS 1005 HPA NEAR THE CENTER ANALYSED BY OUR RSMC. LLCC IS EXPECTED TO RECURVE WESTNORTHWESTWARDS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATING. LAST WARNING RELATED TO THIS SYSTEM UNLESS REINTENSIFICATION BUT IT REMAINS CLOSELY MONITORED (MARINE BULLETIN FQIO25 FMEE AND BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AWIO20 FMEE)