Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

WTIO20 FMEE 151200 SECURITE STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 15/11/2007 AT 1200 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 001/02 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEAS LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). STORM WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 15/11/2007 AT 1200 UTC. PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2 (ARIEL EX-LEE) 984 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.5S / 89.6E (ELEVEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY NINE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 7 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 100 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER EXTENDING LOCALLY UP TO 300 NM IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STORM FORCE WINDS 50 KT AND HIGH SEAS WITHIN 15 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 25 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER EXTENDING UP TO 220 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2007/11/16 AT 00 UTC: 11.7S / 88.3E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 24H, VALID 2007/11/16 AT 12 UTC: 11.8S / 86.9E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. OTHER INFORMATIONS: SEVERE TROPICAL STROM ARIEL EX-LEE HAS CROSSED THE 90E FROM AUSTRALIAN RESPONSABILITY AREA TO RSMC LA REUNION'S ONE AROUND 0800 UTC TODAY AND HAS BEEN RENAMED IN CONSEQUENCE. SYSTEM KEEPS ON TRACKIN SOUTHWESTWARDS BUT IS EXPECTED TO RECURVE ITS TRACK WESTWARDS AT SHORT RANGE. POTENTIAL FOR INTENSIFICATION REMAINS LIMITED DUE TO LESS FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS.