Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
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WTIO20 FMEE 161200 SECURITE STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 16/11/2007 AT 1200 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 005/02 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). STORM WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 16/11/2007 AT 1200 UTC. PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2 (ARIEL EX-LEE) 984 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.6S / 87.8E (ELEVEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY SEVEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC MOVEMENT: WEST 6 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 150 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER EXTENDING LOCALLY UP TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STORM FORCE WINDS 50 KT AND HIGH SEAS WITHIN 15 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 25 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER EXTENDING UP TO 130 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2007/11/17 AT 00 UTC: 11.7S / 86.5E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 24H, VALID 2007/11/17 AT 12 UTC: 11.9S / 85.7E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. OTHER INFORMATIONS: AN EXPOSED CENTER APPEARS ON LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY ... SO ARIEL EX-LEE SEEMS TO BE ON A WEAKNESS TREND ! CONSEQUENTLY THE GUIDANCE IS MORE WESTWARDS WITH A WEAKER SYSTEM BUT SHOULD STILL REMAIN AT TROPICAL STORM STATUS.