Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
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WTIO20 FMEE 161800 SECURITE STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 16/11/2007 AT 1800 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 006/02 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). STORM WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 16/11/2007 AT 1800 UTC. PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2 (ARIEL EX-LEE) 986 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.8S / 87.3E (ELEVEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY SEVEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 5 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 100 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER EXTENDING UP TO 380 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STORM FORCE WINDS 50 KT AND HIGH SEAS WITHIN 15 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 50 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT AND UP 150 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2007/11/17 AT 06 UTC: 12.0S / 86.4E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 24H, VALID 2007/11/17 AT 18 UTC: 12.3S / 85.6E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. OTHER INFORMATIONS: ARIEL KEEPS ON WEAKENING WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ACTUAL CONSTRAINTS ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BEYOND 24 TO 36 HOURS, SYSTEM SHOULD ALSO BEGIN A NEW PHASIS OF INTENSIFICATION. IT IS EXPECTED TO KEEPS ON TRACKING GLOBALLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS THEN RECURVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS UNDERGOING REBUILDING SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESURES IN THE SOUTHWEST.