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Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00 Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48 Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

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WTIO20 FMEE 170000
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 17/11/2007 AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 007/02 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND).
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 17/11/2007 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 2 (ARIEL EX-LEE) 990 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.5S / 87.3E
(ELEVEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY SEVEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: QUASI-STATIONARY

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 130 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER EXTENDING UP TO 330 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 50 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT AND UP 150 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2007/11/17 AT 12 UTC:
11.6S / 86.8E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM.
24H, VALID 2007/11/18 AT 00 UTC:
11.9S / 86.3E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM.

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
ARIEL IS QUASI-STATIONNARY SINCE 1800UTC AND THE CENTER HAS BEEN RELOCATED MORE NORTHERN THANKS TO NEW AVAILABLE SATELLITE IMAGERY.
SYSTEM KEEPS ON WEAKENING WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND ACTUAL CONSTRAINTS ARE EXPECTED TO SLACKEN, SYSTEM COULD ALSO BEGIN A NEW PHASIS OF INTENSIFICATION.
THERE IS A STRONG DUBIOUNESS OF THE FORECAST TRACK AND ALSO INTENSITY DUE TO ANOTHER CYCLOGENESIS AT THIS TIME VERY CLOSE IN THE VICINITY OF THE CHAGOS.
ARIEL IS HOWEVER EXPECTED TO KEEPS ON TRACKING SLOWLY GLOBALLY SOUTHWESTWARDS THEN RECURVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS UNDERGOING REBUILDING SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESURES IN THE SOUTHWEST.