Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

WTIO20 FMEE 180600 CCA *************** CORRECTIVE ************** SECURITE NEAR GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 18/11/2007 AT 0600 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 012/02 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). NEAR GALE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 18/11/2007 AT 0600 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 2 (EX-ARIEL) 998 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.3S / 86.7E (TWELVE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY SIX DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH 3 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS UP TO 200 NM FROM THE CENTRE, MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT, EXYENDING LOCALLY UP TO MORE THAN 1000 MN OF THE CENTER IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT DUE TO THE ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER ACTUALLY DEEPENING IN THE VICINITY OG CHAGOS ISLANDS. CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 25/30 KT AROUND THE CENTER, REACHING LOCALLY GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH SEAS AT 40 NM SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTEND UP TO 120 NM FROM THE CENTRE IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2007/11/18 AT 18 UTC: 12.8S / 86.7E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 24H, VALID 2007/11/19 AT 06 UTC: 13.2S / 86.6E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE CENTER HAS BEEN RELOCATED ACCORDING TO LAST MICRO-WAVE IMAGERIES. IT HAS CURVED SOUTHWARDS DURING THE NIGHT. STRONG WINDS ARE PRESENT IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI CIRCLE BY GRADIENT EFFECT WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE FUTURE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM DEPENDS ON THE POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER TROPICAL LOW EAST OF CHAGOS ISLANDS, WHERE THUNDERSTORM CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS IMPORTANT AND ORGANIZING.