Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
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WTIO20 FMEE 191200 SECURITE STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 19/11/2007 AT 1200 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 005/03 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). STORM WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 19/11/2007 AT 1200 UTC. PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 3 (BONGWE) 987 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.4S / 76.8E (TEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY SIX DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXIST UP TO 200 NM FROM THE CENTER. STORM FORCE WINDS 50 KT AND HIGH SEAS NEAR THE CENTER. GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 25 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER EXTENDING UP TO 65 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI CIRCLE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2007/11/20 AT 00 UTC: 10.9S / 75.8E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 24H, VALID 2007/11/20 AT 12 UTC: 11.4S / 74.8E, MAX WIND = 70 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. OTHER INFORMATIONS: LATEST FIX SUGGEST THAT THE SOUTWESTWARDS TURN HAS BEGUN SUGGESTING THAT "BONGWE" IS PROGRESSIVELY UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SLIGHTY ADJUSTED EQUATORWARDS THIS SYSTEM EXIST IN AN ENVIRONMENT QUITE FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION. GIVEN THE ACTUAL TREND, INTENSITY FORCAST IS ON A LITTLE FASTER RATE ... AND BRINGS "BONGWE" TO TROPICAL CYCLONE STATUS TOMORROW. AT THE END OF THE FORCAST PERIOD, SOME GLOBAL MODELS (AS UK) SUGGEST THAT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL INCREASE AND SHOULD WEAKEN THE SYSTEM . FOR THIS ADVISORY, IT IS NOT REFLECTED YET ... BUT MAYBE IT WILL BE LATER WITH THE NEXT NWP RUN OF 12Z