Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

WTIO20 FMEE 240000 SECURITE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 24/11/2007 AT 0000 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 023/03 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 24/11/2007 AT 0000 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 3 (EX-BONGWE) 1000 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.0S / 66.7E (THIRTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY SIX DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC MOVEMENT: WEST 6 KT THREAT AREAS: RESIDUAL LOCAL SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT UP TO 300 NM FROM THE CENTRE. CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 10/20 KT NEAR THE CENTER, REACHING VERY LOCALLY 25/27 KT (NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS) IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI CIRCLE EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM FROM THE CENTER. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2007/11/24 AT 12 UTC: 13.1S / 65.1E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H, VALID 2007/11/25 AT 00 UTC: 13.6S / 63.7E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. OTHER INFORMATIONS: AN ASCAT PASS AT 1641Z SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM PRODUCES WEAKER WIND THAT EXPECTED. EX-BONGWE KEEPS ON WEAKENING. NO CHANGE IN THIS FORECAST GUIDANCE. STRONGER WINDS ARE IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI CIRCLE DUE TO GRADIENT EFFECT WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.