Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

WTIO20 FMEE 131200 SECURITE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 13/12/2007 AT 1200 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 005/04 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 13/12/2007 AT 1200 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 4 (0420072008) 1000 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.7S / 69.8E (THIRTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY NINE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC MOVEMENT: QUASI-STATIONARY THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 280 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT. CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 20/25 KT AND ROUGH SEAS AROUND THE CENTER. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2007/12/14 AT 00 UTC: 13.8S / 69.7E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H, VALID 2007/12/14 AT 12 UTC: 13.9S / 69.5E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS STILL BADLY DEFINED END THE MENTIONNED CENTER IS PROBABLY THE MAIN. IT IS LOCATED OUT OF THE DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MAINLY LOCATED IN ITS SOUTHWEST. GLOBALLY, THE SYSTEM IS ALMOST-STATIONNARY AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR A CLEAR INTENSIFICATION. THE SYSTEM SHOULD TRACK SLOWLY GLOBALLY SOUTHWESTWARDS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITHOUT INTENSIFYING SIGNIFICANTLY AND THEN IS EXPECTED TO RECURVE MORE WESTWARDS ACCELERATING.