Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

WTIO20 FMEE 131800 SECURITE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 13/12/2007 AT 1800 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 006/04 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 13/12/2007 AT 1800 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 4 (0420072008) 1000 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.9S / 69.7E (THIRTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY NINE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC MOVEMENT: QUASI-STATIONARY THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 280 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT. CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 20/25 KT AND ROUGH SEAS AROUND THE CENTER. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2007/12/14 AT 06 UTC: 14.0S / 69.6E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H, VALID 2007/12/14 AT 18 UTC: 14.2S / 69.3E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS STILL BADLY DEFINED THE CENTER IS STILL LOCATED OUT OF THE DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY LOCATED IN ITS SOUTHWEST. GLOBALLY, THE SYSTEM IS ALMOST-STATIONNARY AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR A CLEAR INTENSIFICATION. THE SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN A GLOBALLY SOUTHWESTWARDS MOTION WITHIN THE NEXT 18-24 HOURS AND THEN ACCELERATING PROGRESSIVELY.