Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

WTIO20 FMEE 160000 SECURITE NEAR GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 16/12/2007 AT 0000 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 015/04 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). NEAR GALE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 16/12/2007 AT 0000 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 4 (0420072008) 999 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.3S / 66.3E (SIXTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY SIX DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDS UP TO 230 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE MAINLY IN THE SOUTHWESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 50 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2007/12/16 AT 12 UTC: 17.2S / 64.8E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 24H, VALID 2007/12/17 AT 00 UTC: 18.1S / 63.2E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. OTHER INFORMATIONS: SYSTEM KEEPS ON UNDERGOING A RATHER NORTHEASTERLY UPPER LEVEL WIND AND THUNDERY ACTIVITY IS SOUTHWESTWARDS AWAY, WHAT PREVENT IT FROM INTENSIFYING. DUE TO USUAL NIGHT ACTIVITY, CONVECTIVE CLOUDS HAS REBUILT NEAR THE LOW LEVEL CENTER, WHICH IS PARTIALLY HIDDEN, AND WHOSE LOCATION IS A LITTLE BIT LESS PRECISE THAN IN THE PREVIOUS WARNINGS. THE SYSTEM SHOULD KEEP ON TRACKING THAT WAY TOWARDS MASCAREIGNES ISLANDS, AND COULD TEMPORARILY ENCOUNTER LESS UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR INTENSIFICATION. NEVERTHELESS, IF IT INTENSIFIES, IT SHOULD NOT REACH MORE THAN MODERATE TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY (MAINLY DUE TO TOO COOL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE, AND SOME OTHER POORLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS), AND WEAKEN RAPIDLY AFTER, APPROCHING MAURITIUS.