Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

WTIO20 FMEE 171200 SECURITE GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 17/12/2007 AT 1200 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 021/04 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). GALE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 17/12/2007 AT 1200 UTC. PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 4 (CELINA) 993 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.0S / 61.2E (TWENTY DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY ONE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 11 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 230 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER EXTENDING UP TO 150 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 110 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2007/12/18 AT 00 UTC: 20.8S / 59.6E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 24H, VALID 2007/12/18 AT 12 UTC: 21.8S / 58.0E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE SYSTEM KEEPS ON TRACKING RATHER RAPIDLY SOUTHWESTWARDS TOWARDS A TROUGH SHIFTING IN THE SOUTH IT HAS INTENSIFIED DURING LAST NIGHT TO REACH MODERATE TROPICAL STORM AND HAS BEEN IN CONSEQUENCE NAMED 'CELINA' BY THE MAURTIUS METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES TODAY AT 0430UTC. CELINA IS EXPECTED TO KEEPS ON TRACKING RAPIDLY SOUTHWESTWARDS WITHIN THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS AND THEN RECURVING WESTWARDS THEN WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS UNDERGOING THE REBUILDING SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES. SYSTEM HAS PROBABLY REACHED ITS MAXIMUM INTENSITY AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTING TO BE LESS FAVOURABLE WITH A WEAK POLAR INFLOW LINKED TO THE SHIFTING TROUGH IN ITS SOUTH AND A BAD ENERGETIC POTENTIAL ON COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.