Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

WTIO24 FMEE 021200 SECURITE NEAR GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 02/01/2008 AT 1200 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 012/06 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). NEAR GALE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 02/01/2008 AT 1200 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 6 (EX-ELNUS) 997 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.2S / 40.3E (TWENTY DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC MOVEMENT: QUASI-STATIONARY THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS AND EXTENDS UP TO 300 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTERN SEMI-CIRCLE, BUT REACHING ALWAYS GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT IN THE SOUTHERN CIRCLE UP TO 30 NM OF THE CENTER. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2008/01/03 AT 00 UTC: 20.6S / 40.3E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 24H, VALID 2008/01/03 AT 12 UTC: 21.9S / 40.5E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE CENTER OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS REMAINED QUITE STATIONNARY DURING THE LAST 12 HOURS. THUNDERSTORM CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS PUSHED AWAY BY AN IMPORTANT NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR IN HIGH LEVEL. IT SEEMS TO RESTART SLOWLY SOUSTH-SOUTHEASTWARDS SINCE THE VERY LAST HOURS. ELNUS IS EXPECTED TO CURVE GENERALLY SOUTHWARDS TOWARDS A WEAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES BELT. STRONGER WINDS EXTEND FURTHER IN THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM DUE TO THE GRADIENT WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES.